IMHO it looks bleak.
Facts: Chareidim in general (there are of course exceptions) do not believe that democracy and liberalism have much value. They do not believe that every Jew should be allowed to do what he or she wishes. They say this. They write this. They are not hiding it from everybody. Their ideal form of government is one run by "gedolim". Political parties like Shas, which are driven by the outspoken "Gadol" Ovadya Yosef, are a foreshadowing of what Chareidim expect from politics i.e. a country run by Da'as Torah - which means run by the authoritative decisions of Gedolim.
Problem: Chareidim in general do not use contraception and therefore are growing at almost 5 to 10 times the rate of the secular population. Their demographic domination of the Israeli Jewish population seems inevitable.
The Future: A Theocratic state similar to Iran, where a council of "gedolim" can veto laws OR "gedolim" or askanim are the main political movers and shakers. Israel is not known for its clear cut separation of church and state and AS IT IS a large part of the countries laws are completely religion is nature (Marriage and divorce for just one example) this existing trend will be taken further to include state mandated laws of Kashrut, Shabbat etc. TV and internet will be heavily censored.
Hope: The Chareidim of tomorrow will not be the Chareidim of today. As they begin to become a larger percentage of the population they will be forced to start to working and be less insulated.
Despair: They will still be very religious and have very little respect for democracy or personal freedom. Working and leaving the ghetto does not automatically make you more tolerant.
Am I missing some mitigating factors here?
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Modern Orthodox, if they were intellectually honest, would have to concede that they are praying every day for the same thing: a theocratic state run by a Davidic dynasty forevermore, one that does not believe in democracy, freedom of religion, or indeed most other freedoms guaranteed by the US Constitution. They would also have to agree that this is the belief and desire of the overwhelming number of halachic figures throughout history, even among those modern-day rabbonim who have experienced living in a democracy. Everyone else has been marginalized, whether it is a Meiri or an Eliezer Berkovitz.
Eventually, these parasites will destroy Israel. At some point, there will not be enough resources to support them and the economy will collapse unless laws are changed and they are forced to carry part of the national burden by contributing to society.
This is true.
Unsustainable trends do not continue ad infintum. They cannot by definition. Well before this becomes a major issue, the country will have reacted. Indeed it shows every sign of doing so now.
I don't see how a reaction will help. What are they gonna do stop them having babies? Force them to stop believing stupid things? Forcing them to go to the army may help but I'm still skeptical...
You're right but thank god they have cognitive dissonance and will keep a lot of these prayers where they belong - in obsolete liturgy...
No, we're well aware of it but if a genuine Davidic figure takes the throne and the Temple is rebuilt it'll be because of God's direct and unmistakable intervention in affairs. If you don't like it at that point you can take it up with Him. Until then the MO recognize that a democratic state run along halachic lines is a desirable goals with some separation of shul and state left in.
I'm no fan of Chareidim but let me point out some of the mitigating factors you've missed:
1) In the last government, the prime minister, 5 of his senior ministers and the president were, at one point or another, under investigation for corruption or sexual crimes. The Chareidim had nothing to do with this.
2) Israel engaged the Arabs in both 'Aza and Lebanon with no clear strategy or end goals and wound up making a mess of both. The Chareidim had nothing to do with this.
3) Israel's disparate economy, with some folks really really poor, some folks really, really rich and the middle class slowly disappearing, well the Chareidim had nothing to do with this.
4) Israel's secular education system, when ranked against comparable systems in Europe, ends up dead last. Violence in schools is higher than most countries in Europe. The Chareidim had nothing to do with this.
In fact, secular Israel has lots of big problems to address that have nothing to do with the Chareidim but it's so much easier to act like they're the real threat to the country.
Did you use the word "if" in the first sentence deliberately? If you are ideologically MO you should really have said "when"
I think the main mitigating factor is necessity. Sure, today, chareidim are happy not to serve in the army and not to work. But, today, they are a small percent of the county. Once they are in the majority, the consequence of their decision may be to be killed by Arabs and starve to death. Then, they might choose to reform Of course, they might not. You really can't know since there are too many unknowns.
all of these are big problems but none of them compromise the basic democratic nature of Israeli society
many American Chareidim work, this does not mean they love democracy and would not like a theocracy
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